class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # National Commission on Indigenous Peoples ] .subtitle[ ## A comprehensive look at the budget, 2018-2026 ] .date[ ### July 2026 ] --- class: section-divider center middle # Section 1 of 3: The Scale of the Budget ### Scale, composition, and the largest lines --- ## Executive summary - **NCIP's enacted budget has nearly doubled** -- from PHP 968M (2018 GAA) to a proposed PHP 1,804M (2026): about +86% over eight years, or ~8% a year. - **The agency keeps moving.** It sat under the **Other Executive Offices (OEOs)**, shifted **under DSWD for FY 2019-2024**, then **returned to the OEOs (FY 2025-2026)** -- and adopted a **new P/A/P structure in 2025**. Every trend line below hides these breaks. - **FY 2025 is the anomaly.** Congress enacted PHP 1,202M against a PHP 1,600M proposal -- a **-25% cut that hit every program** and zeroed out capital outlay -- before FY 2026 rebounded to a record PHP 1,804M. - **A people-heavy agency.** Personnel Services run **54-71% of the budget**; capital outlay is small and intermittent (PHP 0 in the FY 2025 GAA). - **Administration is nearly half the budget.** In FY 2026, General Management (PHP 435M) and Policy/Planning (PHP 399M) together are **46%** -- almost as much as all field operations combined. - **Execution is high on an all-funds basis.** Obligation rates run **92-99%**; cash disbursement-to-allotment is lower (**84-97%**), dipping to ~86% in 2024. --- ## A few notes on the data - **Period:** FY 2018 through FY 2026 for the proposed (NEP) and enacted (GAA) budget. Execution data (Allotments, Obligations, Disbursements) covers FY 2011-2025. - **Two bases, not comparable.** NEP/GAA figures are **current-year new appropriations only**. The execution figures are DBM's **published agency aggregates, which lump together all available funds** -- new, automatic, and continuing appropriations. Do not read them one-to-one. - **No P/A/P-level execution.** Usable FAR No. 1 records were unavailable for NCIP, so absorption is shown only at the **agency level**, not by program. - **Two reorganizations.** NCIP's *mother agency* changed (OEOs -> DSWD -> OEOs) and its *P/A/P structure* was re-cut in 2025. Program names before and after 2025 do not line up. - **Expense classes:** PS (Personnel Services), MOOE (Maintenance & Other Operating Expenses), CO (Capital Outlays). NCIP carries no Financial Expenses. - **Units:** all figures in **PHP millions** unless noted. --- ## Two reorganizations inside one budget window <img src="data:image/png;base64,#NCIP_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/reorg-timeline-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> **Read every chart that follows with these breaks in mind** -- continuity of program lines is the exception, not the rule. --- ## Big picture: the budget keeps growing <img src="data:image/png;base64,#NCIP_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/evolution-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Big picture: a few takeaways <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 15px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> PHP M </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2018 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2019 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2022 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2023 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2024 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2025 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2026 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> NEP </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,132 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 977 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,107 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,127 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,432 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,393 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,476 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,600 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,727 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> GAA </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 968 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 985 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,110 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,137 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,432 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,413 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,553 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,202 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,804 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> - **Steady growth during the DSWD years** (FY 2019-2024 GAA grew ~9.5%/yr), then a sharp enacted drop in FY 2025 and a record rebound in FY 2026. - **Congress mostly stayed within a few percent of the proposal** -- except FY 2018 (-15%) and FY 2025 (-25%). - **The FY 2026 proposal (PHP 1,727M) was raised to PHP 1,804M by Congress** -- the largest enacted budget in the series. --- ## Where Congress adjusts the budget <img src="data:image/png;base64,#NCIP_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/nep-gaa-gap-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## The FY 2025 cut hit everything <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 15px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Program (2025 structure) </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> NEP </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> GAA </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Cut </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Cut % </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> IP Governance & Empowerment (2025-) </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 443 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 407 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> -37 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> -8% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> General Administration and Support </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 411 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 296 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> -115 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> -28% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Support to Operations </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 369 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 246 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> -123 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> -33% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Domain/Land Recognition & Dev't (2025-) </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 199 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 112 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> -86 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> -43% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> IP Human Rights, Legal & Basic Svcs (2025-) </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 141 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 110 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> -32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> -23% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> IP Cultural Services (2025-) </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 36 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 31 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> -5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> -13% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ancestral Domain Recognition (2018-24) </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Rights, Legal & Adjudication (2018-24) </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Socio-economic & Cultural Services (2018-24) </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;color: rgba(217, 95, 2, 255) !important;"> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> **The reduction was broad, not targeted** -- roughly -25% across administration, support, and every operating program, with capital outlay zeroed. FY 2025 was also the transition year (return to the OEOs + the new P/A/P structure), so part of this may be a budget caught mid-reorganization rather than a deliberate deprioritization. **Which reading do you find more convincing?** --- ## Which P/A/Ps does Congress augment? <img src="data:image/png;base64,#NCIP_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/ncip-aug-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .small[ Cumulative across FY 2018-2026. The pattern is consistent: Congress **cuts NCIP's administrative and policy lines** (Policy formulation & planning, General Management) and **redirects toward direct services** -- IP Education & Advocacy and culturally-appropriate/gender-responsive services -- rather than changing the topline much. ] --- class: section-divider center middle # Section 2 of 3: Where the Money Goes ### Programs, expense classes, and the largest lines --- ## Composition by PREXC program <img src="data:image/png;base64,#NCIP_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/composition-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Composition by expense class <img src="data:image/png;base64,#NCIP_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/comp-ec-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## The largest P/A/Ps (FY 2026 GAA) <img src="data:image/png;base64,#NCIP_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/top-paps-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## The new program architecture (FY 2025 onward) <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 16px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Original operating programs (<= 2024) </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Restructured operating programs (2025 ->) </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ancestral Domain Recognition </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Domain/Land Recognition, Management & Development </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Socio-economic & Cultural Services </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> IP Governance & Empowerment Services </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Rights, Legal & Adjudication </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> IP Human Rights, Legal & Basic Social Services </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> IP Cultural Services </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> .small[ - The operating side was re-cut from **three programs into four**, reorganized around **domain/land, governance & empowerment, human rights/legal/basic services, and culture**. - Because labels changed, pre- and post-2025 program lines should be **bridged with care** rather than compared directly. - The two support programs -- **General Administration & Support** and **Support to Operations** -- carry through both regimes unchanged. ] --- class: section-divider center middle # Section 3 of 3: Does NCIP Spend What It Receives? ### Budget execution, FY 2011-2025 (agency aggregate, all funds) --- ## Execution over time <img src="data:image/png;base64,#NCIP_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/exec-levels-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Absorptive capacity <img src="data:image/png;base64,#NCIP_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/absorp-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Execution at a glance <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 14px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Year </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Allotments </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Obligations </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Disbursements </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> O/A </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/O </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/A </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2016 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,041 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 967 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 869 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 92.9% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 89.8% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 83.5% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2017 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,320 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,251 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,212 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94.8% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 96.9% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 91.8% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2018 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,108 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,092 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,049 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 98.6% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 96.1% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94.7% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,109 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,104 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 99.6% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 92.5% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 92.1% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,052 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,036 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,018 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 98.5% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 98.2% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 96.7% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,230 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,205 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,171 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 98.0% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 97.2% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 95.2% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,530 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,464 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,388 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 95.6% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94.9% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 90.7% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,663 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,540 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,493 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 92.6% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 96.9% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 89.7% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2024 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,769 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,670 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,516 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94.4% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 90.8% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 85.7% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2025 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,577 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,488 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1,436 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94.4% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 96.5% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 91.1% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> .small[ PHP millions, all-funds basis. **O/A** = obligations to allotment; **D/O** = disbursements to obligations; **D/A** = disbursements to allotment. NCIP generally obligates almost everything released to it; the gap that opens up is between obligating and actually paying out. ] --- ## For discussion - **1. Scale vs. mandate.** NCIP's enacted budget (~PHP 1.8B for 2026) is a rounding error in the national budget, yet IPRA tasks it with recognizing ancestral domains covering millions of hectares and serving millions of people. Is this commensurate with the mandate? - **2. Administration vs. delivery.** In FY 2026, General Management (PHP 435M) and Policy/Planning (PHP 399M) together are **46% of the budget** -- almost as much as all field operations combined. Is the overhead-to-delivery balance right? - **3. The FY 2025 cut.** Congress cut FY 2025 by 25% below proposal, across the board, and zeroed capital outlay -- in the same year NCIP returned to the OEOs and re-cut its programs. Deliberate deprioritization, transition turbulence, or both? - **4. The reorganization carousel.** OEOs -> DSWD -> OEOs in seven years, plus a P/A/P overhaul. What has constant institutional reshuffling cost the agency in continuity and delivery? - **5. Where would you put the next peso?** Domain/land recognition, governance & empowerment, human rights/legal/basic services, or culture? --- class: center, middle # Thank you ### National Commission on Indigenous Peoples #### A comprehensive look at the budget, 2018-2026 .footnote[Underlying data: DBM NEP & GAA documents (current-year new appropriations, P/A/P level), FY 2018-2026; DBM-published execution aggregates (all available funds, agency level), FY 2011-2025. No FAR No. 1 (P/A/P-level execution) was available for NCIP.] <style type="text/css"> /* Styles are defined here (end of document) so the <style> block does not occupy a content slide; a <style> tag applies to the whole deck regardless of which slide carries it. */ .remark-slide-content, .remark-slide-content h1, .remark-slide-content h2, .remark-slide-content h3, .remark-slide-content h4, .remark-slide-content p, .remark-slide-content li, .remark-slide-content td, .remark-slide-content th, .title-slide h1, .title-slide h2, .title-slide h3 { font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "IBM Plex Sans", sans-serif; } .remark-slide-content { font-size: 22px; } .remark-slide-content h1 { font-size: 36px; font-weight: 600; } .remark-slide-content h2 { font-size: 28px; font-weight: 600; } .remark-slide-content h3 { font-size: 22px; font-weight: 600; } .remark-slide-content table { font-size: 18px; } .remark-slide-content .footnote { position: absolute; bottom: 0.5em; left: 1em; font-size: 14px; color: #6e6e6e; } .small, .small li { font-size: 17px; } .section-divider { background-color: #1B4965; color: #ffffff; } .section-divider h1, .section-divider h2, .section-divider h3 { color: #ffffff; } </style>