class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Department of Environment and Natural Resources – Office of the Secretary ] .subtitle[ ## The FY 2027 proposed budget in context, 2018-2027 ] .date[ ### September 2026 ] --- <style type="text/css"> .remark-slide-content, .remark-slide-content h1, .remark-slide-content h2, .remark-slide-content h3, .remark-slide-content h4, .remark-slide-content p, .remark-slide-content li, .remark-slide-content td, .remark-slide-content th, .title-slide h1, .title-slide h2, .title-slide h3 { font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "IBM Plex Sans", sans-serif; } .remark-slide-content { font-size: 22px; } .remark-slide-content h1 { font-size: 36px; font-weight: 600; } .remark-slide-content h2 { font-size: 28px; font-weight: 600; } .remark-slide-content h3 { font-size: 22px; font-weight: 600; } .remark-slide-content table { font-size: 18px; } .remark-slide-content .footnote { position: absolute; bottom: 0.5em; left: 1em; font-size: 14px; color: #6e6e6e; } .small, .small li { font-size: 17px; } </style> ## Executive summary -- the FY 2027 proposal - **The FY 2027 proposal (NEP) is PHP 20.6B -- essentially flat** on the 2026 proposal (PHP 20.5B), and it barely reshuffles: only a few lines move by more than a couple hundred million. This is a steady-state proposal. - **DENR is the exception to the "proposal is a floor" rule.** Congress does *not* reliably augment DENR-OSEC -- it **trimmed** the 2026 proposal by PHP 1.25B at enactment. So the FY 2027 NEP is closer to a ceiling than a floor, and advocates arguing for more cannot assume Congress will add it. - **DENR's budget has been flat for nine years.** OSEC GAA stayed within PHP 16-20B from 2018 to 2026 -- one of the few line departments not to scale up; the FY 2027 proposal continues that. - **In real terms, the budget has shrunk by ~30%.** Adjusting for inflation, the FY 2026 GAA (PHP 19.3B nominal) is roughly PHP 13.6B in 2018 pesos -- 30% below where the agency started the period. --- ## Executive summary -- profile and execution - **Absorption is strong by Philippine standards.** Disbursement-to-allotment held at **82-88% from 2019 onward**, with PS at 97-99% and MOOE/CO in the 60-79% range. - **The agency's profile has shifted from capital to personnel.** PS went from 31% (2018) to 45% (2026) of GAA; Capital Outlays collapsed from 37% to 12%. The shift mirrors the wind-down of foreign-assisted projects (INREMP, Forestland Management) and a cooling of the National Greening Program. - **The biggest line is overhead.** General Management and Supervision is **PHP 4.03B = 21%** of the OSEC budget in 2026 -- a heavy management share for a small department. - **Congress redirects within DENR:** the largest cumulative trim is to **Forest Development (-PHP 12.4B)**; the largest cumulative add is to **Protected Areas (+PHP 2.9B)**. Both reflect a shift from active reforestation toward conservation/management. - **Foreign-assisted projects have ended.** INREMP wound down by 2021; Forestland Management by 2023. Both absorbed weakly (D/A 17-50%) while running. --- ## A few notes on the data - **Period:** FY 2018-2027. **FY 2027 is the NEP (the Executive's proposal) only** -- not yet debated or enacted, and with no execution data. FY 2026 reflects NEP/GAA only; execution runs FY 2018-2025. Unusually, Congress has *not* reliably added to DENR-OSEC (it trimmed it in 2026), so the FY 2027 NEP is closer to a ceiling than a floor. - **Scope:** the main analysis covers the DENR Office of the Secretary; a slide near the end summarises the attached agencies (EMB, MGB, NAMRIA, NWRB, PCSDS). "Current New Appropriations" only. - **PREXC structure:** General Admin (1000), Support to Operations (2000), Natural Resources Enforcement and Permitting (3101), Natural Resources Conservation and Development (3102 -- the operational core, 11 P/A/Ps), and Natural Resources Assessment (3203, a single research line). - **Expense classes:** PS (Personnel Services), MOOE (Maintenance & Other Operating Expenses), CO (Capital Outlays). - **Absorptive capacity denominator:** Adjusted Allotments (AdjAllot). --- ## Big picture: the budget has not grown <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DENR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-evolution-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Big picture: a few takeaways <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 15px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> PHP B </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2018 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2019 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2022 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2023 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2024 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2025 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2026 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2027 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> NEP </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 21.6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18.7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 20.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 17.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18.6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 20.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 20.6 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> GAA </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18.1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Adj. Allotment </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18.1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Obligations </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18.7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 17.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 18.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 17.1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 17.6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 17.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Disbursements </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15.6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16.6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15.6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15.7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> - **2018 was the peak year** at PHP 19.4B GAA. The agency has not regained that level in real terms. - **Congress rarely augments DENR.** Most year-on-year NEP-to-GAA changes are modest (within PHP 0.5B); the FY 2026 GAA actually came in PHP 1.2B *below* the Executive's NEP. - **Disbursements track allotments well** -- the gap is PHP 3-4B in most years (an 82-88% D/A). --- ## Where the money goes (by PREXC program) <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DENR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-composition-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Composition by Expense Class <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DENR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-comp-ec-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## The ten largest P/A/Ps (FY 2027 NEP, proposed) <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DENR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-top10-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Where Congress adjusts the DENR budget <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DENR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-augmentation-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Absorptive capacity: aggregate <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DENR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-absorp-agg-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Absorption by Expense Class <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DENR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-absorp-ec-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Strongest absorbers (FY 2025) <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 14px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> P/A/P </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Allotment (B) </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> O/A </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/O </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/A </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Land Survey, Disposition and Records Management </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.87 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 98% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 96% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Legal Services including Operations Against Unl... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 98% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 96% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Formulation and Monitoring of ENR Sector Polici... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.75 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 96% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 91% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Administration of Personnel Benefits </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 100% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 91% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 91% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Development, Updating and Implementation of the... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.24 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 95% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 89% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Forest Development, Rehabilitation, Maintenance... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 95% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 93% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 89% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Ecosystem Research Development and Extension Se... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 92% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 96% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 89% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> The strongest absorbers are well-defined operational and administrative lines: **Land Survey and Disposition (94%)**, Legal Services (94%), Formulation of ENR Policies (91%), and the Manila Bay Operational Plan (89%). All but one are PHP 200M-1.9B sized. --- ## Weakest absorbers (FY 2025) <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 14px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> P/A/P </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Allotment (B) </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> O/A </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/O </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/A </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Data Management including Systems Development a... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.28 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 76% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 43% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 32% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Conduct of Special Studies, Design and Developm... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 67% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 85% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 57% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Soil Conservation and Watershed Management incl... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 77% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 77% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 59% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Management of Coastal and Marine Resources/Areas </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.26 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 88% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 85% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 76% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Production and Dissemination of Technical and P... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 86% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 92% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 79% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Human Resource Development </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 87% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 92% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 80% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Protected areas development and management </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.42 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 88% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 83% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> **Data Management at 32% D/A is the standout underperformer** -- the agency obligated 76% of its PHP 1.28B allotment but disbursed only 43% of obligations. Soil Conservation, Special Studies, and Coastal/Marine Resources Management all sit in the 57-79% range. --- ## Forest Development collapsed; Protected Areas rose <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DENR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-forest-pa-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Trajectories of the largest programs <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DENR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-trend-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## What changes in the FY 2027 proposal (NEP 2026 -> NEP 2027) <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DENR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-change-2627-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .small[ DENR's FY 2027 proposal is close to a copy of its FY 2026 proposal. The only moves above PHP 0.2B are a top-up to natural-resource management arrangements and a trim to data-management/IT -- there is no major reallocation to scrutinise, which is itself the story for a standstill budget. ] --- ## The attached agencies: FY 2027 proposal <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DENR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-attached-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .small[ Appropriations only (no P/A/P-level execution data). The **Environmental Management Bureau (PHP 3.1B)** -- which handles pollution control and environmental compliance -- is the largest attached body and is proposed **down** (from PHP 3.46B enacted in 2026). Mines & Geosciences (PHP 1.9B) and NAMRIA/mapping (PHP 2.0B) are roughly flat; the Water Resources Board and Palawan Council are small and steady. ] --- ## For discussion -- scrutinising the FY 2027 proposal - **1. A standstill proposal for a widening mandate.** The FY 2027 NEP (PHP 20.6B) is essentially flat, extending a decade of real-terms decline (~30% since 2018). And because Congress has not reliably augmented DENR -- it trimmed the 2026 proposal -- advocates cannot count on the enacted budget rising above it. As the lead agency for forests, biodiversity, coasts and air/water quality in a climate-vulnerable archipelago, is DENR structurally underprovided? - **2. The Forest Development collapse.** Congress trimmed PHP 12.4B cumulatively from the line that was DENR's largest in 2018. The Executive's own proposals also fell (from PHP 8.6B to PHP 3.5B). What policy shift does this reflect -- a winding-down of the National Greening Program, a change in reforestation strategy, or absorption concerns? - **3. The growing overhead share.** General Management and Supervision is ~19-21% of the OSEC budget -- the largest single line. Combined with the PS share rising from 31% to 45%, is the agency drifting toward a heavier administrative footprint at the expense of field operations? - **4. Capital Outlays decline.** CO collapsed from 37% (2018) to 12% (2026), tied to the end of INREMP and Forestland Management foreign-assisted projects. What is the agency's capital-investment pipeline for monitoring stations, protected-area infrastructure, and survey equipment? - **5. The Data Management absorption gap.** A PHP 1.28B line disbursed at just 32% of allotment in FY 2025 -- the agency's weakest performer despite presumably routine IT procurement. What is binding the spend? --- class: center, middle # Thank you ### Department of Environment and Natural Resources -- Office of the Secretary #### The FY 2027 proposed budget in context, 2018-2027 .footnote[Underlying data: DBM NEP & GAA and DBM-published execution data for the DENR-OSEC (Current New Appropriations only), NEP FY 2018-2027, GAA/execution FY 2018-2026/2025. FY 2027 is the proposed NEP only.]