class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Department of Agrarian Reform – Office of the Secretary ] .subtitle[ ## The FY 2027 proposed budget in context, 2018-2027 ] .date[ ### August 2026 ] --- <style type="text/css"> /* Plain Arial/Helvetica throughout (overrides xaringan default-fonts) */ .remark-slide-content, .remark-slide-content h1, .remark-slide-content h2, .remark-slide-content h3, .remark-slide-content h4, .remark-slide-content p, .remark-slide-content li, .remark-slide-content td, .remark-slide-content th, .title-slide h1, .title-slide h2, .title-slide h3 { font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "IBM Plex Sans", sans-serif; } .remark-slide-content { font-size: 22px; } .remark-slide-content h1 { font-size: 36px; font-weight: 600; } .remark-slide-content h2 { font-size: 28px; font-weight: 600; } .remark-slide-content h3 { font-size: 22px; font-weight: 600; } .remark-slide-content table { font-size: 18px; } .remark-slide-content .footnote { position: absolute; bottom: 0.5em; left: 1em; font-size: 14px; color: #6e6e6e; } .small, .small li { font-size: 17px; } </style> ## Executive summary -- the FY 2027 proposal - **The FY 2027 NEP proposes to *shrink* DAR-OSEC** to **PHP 14.7B -- down 13% from the FY 2026 enacted PHP 16.8B.** After a one-year surge, the Executive is pulling the department back. - **The land-titling project (SPLIT) is being wound down.** The World Bank-funded SPLIT falls from PHP 5.1B (2026, the single largest line) to just **PHP 0.7B (-PHP 4.4B)** -- driving Land Tenure Security down PHP 4.6B. - **The money pivots to ARB development and livelihood.** ARB Development & Sustainability rises **+PHP 2.4B**, led by the VISTA project (PHP 1.2B -> PHP 2.0B) and a **brand-new PHP 1.4B line, "Pang-Agraryong Tulay para sa Bagong Bayanihan."** - **Core Land Acquisition & Distribution (LAD) grows modestly** to PHP 3.1B and is again the largest single line. - **A red flag for advocates:** the projects being scaled up are the ones DAR absorbs *worst*. **VISTA disbursed just 19% of its allotment in 2025**, yet is proposed to nearly double; the new Pang-Agraryong Tulay line has no track record at all. - **The domestic core remains the strong performer** -- LAD, legal assistance and social infrastructure disburse at 94-99%, versus 31-38% for SPLIT. - **The scrutiny question:** is a smaller budget that leans on weak-absorbing and untested lines a credible plan to finish agrarian reform? --- ## A few notes on the data - **Period:** FY 2018 through FY 2027. **FY 2027 is the NEP (the Executive's proposal) only** -- it has not been debated or enacted, and has no execution data. FY 2026 reflects NEP/GAA only. Execution data (Allotments, Obligations, Disbursements) is available for FY 2018-2025. - **Reading the proposal:** where a chart or table shows FY 2027, the figure is the *proposed* amount. Whether it survives Congress -- which has cut DAR's proposals before -- is exactly what advocates can shape. - **One known data gap:** FY 2018 execution data for the foreign-assisted projects (SPLIT, IARCDSP, MINSAAD, CONVERGE, IPAC, VISTA) and two small building lines is not yet encoded. The 2018 aggregate execution totals therefore exclude those P/A/Ps -- about PHP 2B of GAA. Subsequent years are complete. To avoid presenting biased ratios, absorption charts cover FY 2019-2025 only. - **Scope:** the DAR Office of the Secretary, which is the entire department as encoded here. "Current New Appropriations" only -- excludes Continuing and Automatic Appropriations and Special Purpose Fund transfers. - **PREXC structure:** General Administration and Support; Support to Operations; and three core programs -- Land Tenure Security, Agrarian Justice Delivery, and Agrarian Reform Beneficiaries (ARB) Development and Sustainability. - **Absorptive capacity denominator:** Adjusted Allotments (AdjAllot), the closest proxy for what the agency was actually given to spend. - **Key terms:** NEP = National Expenditure Program (Executive proposal); GAA = General Appropriations Act (enacted). Obligations = spending commitments; Disbursements = cash actually paid out. --- ## Big picture: the budget jumps in 2026 <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DAR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-evolution-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Big picture: a few takeaways <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 15px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> PHP B </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2018 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2019 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2022 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2023 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2024 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2025 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2026 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2027 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> NEP </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16.1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14.7 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> GAA </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9.1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Adj. Allotment </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Obligations </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9.6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Disbursements </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> - **The budget was remarkably flat** at PHP 8-10B from 2018 through 2025, spiked to PHP 16.8B in 2026, and is now proposed to fall back to **PHP 14.7B in 2027** -- still well above the pre-2026 baseline, but a clear step down. - **The 2026 spike and the 2027 pull-back are the same story:** the SPLIT land-titling project ramping up, then winding down. Strip out SPLIT and the underlying budget is far steadier. - **Congress has been a net subtractor, not an augmenter.** In FY 2022 and FY 2023 the enacted GAA came in well below the NEP (by PHP 2.4B and PHP 4.5B) -- so the FY 2027 proposal is a ceiling advocates can contest, not a floor. --- ## Where the money goes (by PREXC program) <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DAR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-composition-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Composition by Expense Class <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DAR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-comp-ec-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## The largest P/A/Ps (FY 2026 GAA) <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DAR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-top10-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## What DAR is proposed to fund in FY 2027 <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DAR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-top10-2027-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## What changes from FY 2026 to FY 2027 <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DAR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-change-2627-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .small[ Two things for advocates to test: **(1)** the projects growing fastest -- VISTA and the untested Pang-Agraryong Tulay -- are exactly the type DAR has absorbed *worst* (see the next section); **(2)** SPLIT's PHP 4.4B cut needs a clear answer on whether land parcelization is finished or merely paused. ] --- ## Absorptive capacity: aggregate <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DAR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-absorp-agg-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Absorption by Expense Class <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DAR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-absorp-ec-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Strongest absorbers (FY 2025) <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 15px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> P/A/P </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Allotment (B) </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> O/A </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/O </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/A </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Administration of Personnel Benefits </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 100% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 100% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 100% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Social Infrastructure Building </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.91 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 100% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 99% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 99% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Land Acquisition and Distribution (LAD) </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.61 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 99% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 99% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 98% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Provision of Agrarian Legal Assistance </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 99% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 98% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 97% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Climate Resilient Farm Productivity Support </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 99% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 96% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> General Management and Supervision </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.09 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 99% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 95% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> The strongest absorbers are DAR's core domestic functions -- land distribution, legal assistance, social infrastructure, and personnel administration. Where the work is routine and domestically run, **disbursement reaches 94-100%**. --- ## Weakest absorbers (FY 2025) <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 15px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> P/A/P </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Allotment (B) </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> O/A </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/O </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/A </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Value Chain Innovation for Sustainable Transfor... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 37% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 51% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Support to Parcelization of Lands for Individua... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 56% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 60% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 33% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Policy Formulation, Monitoring and Evaluation, ... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.62 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 89% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 60% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 53% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Supervision and Management and Processes Relati... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 92% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 95% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 87% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Supervision and Management for Effective Delive... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 97% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 91% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 88% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Enterprise Development and Economic Support </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.24 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 98% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 91% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 89% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> The weakest absorbers are the **foreign-assisted projects** -- VISTA disbursed just 19% of its allotment, SPLIT 33%. The Policy Formulation line (53%) is the one sizable domestic exception. --- ## Trajectories of the largest programs <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DAR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-trend-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## The SPLIT project and foreign-assisted financing <img src="data:image/png;base64,#DAR_OSEC_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/fig-split-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .small[ - **SPLIT is a budget tug-of-war -- now ending.** The Executive proposed PHP 4.6B (2022) and PHP 6.1B (2023); Congress cut these to PHP 2.6B and PHP 1.6B. It peaked at PHP 5.1B in 2026 -- the largest single line -- and the **FY 2027 NEP proposes just PHP 0.7B**, effectively winding the project down. - **The absorption risk doesn't disappear -- it moves.** SPLIT disbursed only 31-38% of its allotment; **VISTA (IFAD-funded) disbursed just 19% in 2025, yet the 2027 NEP nearly doubles it to PHP 2.0B.** The new PHP 1.4B "Pang-Agraryong Tulay" line has no track record at all. Advocates should press for delivery plans before, not after, the money is appropriated. ] --- ## Line-item reference: the FY 2027 proposal in context <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 12px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> P/A/P </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> NEP 2027 (B) </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> GAA 2026 (B) </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Change (B) </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/A 2025 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Land Acquisition and Distribution (LAD) </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.92 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 98% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> General Management and Supervision </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.25 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -0.03 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Value Chain Innovation for Sustainable Transfor... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.00 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.78 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pang-Agraryong Tulay para sa Bagong Bayanihan n... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.42 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Social Infrastructure Building </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.09 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.03 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.07 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 99% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Policy Formulation, Monitoring and Evaluation, ... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.99 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -0.15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 53% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Climate Resilient Farm Productivity Support </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.95 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.88 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.07 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 94% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Provision of Agrarian Legal Assistance </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.74 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 97% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Support to Parcelization of Lands for Individua... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.09 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.36 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 33% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Adjudication of Agrarian Reform Cases </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.25 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.02 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 93% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Enterprise Development and Economic Support </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.26 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.24 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.02 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 89% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Administration of Personnel Benefits </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.24 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.17 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.07 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 100% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Supervision and Management for Effective Delive... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.17 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.01 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 88% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Supervision and Management and Processes Relati... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.00 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 87% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Landowners' Compensation by LBP </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Supervision and Management for Effective Delive... </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.09 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.00 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 88% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Resolution of Agrarian Law Implementation Cases </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.09 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.08 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.01 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 91% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Agrarian Reform Information Education </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.04 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.04 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.00 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 92% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Post-Land Distribution </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.02 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.02 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.00 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 80% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Non-Land Transfer Activities </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.01 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.01 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.00 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 83% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> .footnote[FY 2027 = proposed (NEP); FY 2026 = enacted (GAA). "Change" is NEP 2027 minus GAA 2026. The 2025 D/A column shows how each line most recently absorbed -- a guide to which proposed increases carry delivery risk.] --- ## For discussion -- scrutinising the FY 2027 proposal 1. **A shrinking budget for unfinished reform.** The proposal cuts DAR 13% to PHP 14.7B. With land distribution, titling and ARB support all incomplete, is a *smaller* budget justified -- or should advocates push Congress to restore it? 2. **SPLIT's PHP 4.4B wind-down.** Is land parcelization actually finished, or is the World Bank project ending with parcels still untitled? What is the plan -- and budget -- to title the remainder? 3. **Scaling up the weakest absorber.** VISTA disbursed just 19% of its allotment in 2025, yet the NEP nearly doubles it to PHP 2.0B. What has changed operationally to justify that, and what disbursement targets should be attached? 4. **A new PHP 1.4B line with no track record.** "Pang-Agraryong Tulay para sa Bagong Bayanihan" appears for the first time in 2027. What will it fund, who are the beneficiaries, how was the PHP 1.4B sized, and how will results be measured? 5. **Protecting the core.** LAD, legal assistance and social infrastructure absorb at 94-99%. Are these proven programs adequately funded in 2027, or squeezed to make room for new and foreign-assisted lines? --- class: center, middle # Thank you ### Department of Agrarian Reform -- Office of the Secretary #### The FY 2027 proposed budget in context, 2018-2027 .footnote[Underlying data: DBM NEP & GAA and DBM-published execution data for the DAR-OSEC (Current New Appropriations only), FY 2018-2027. FY 2027 is the proposed NEP only. FY 2018 SAAODB for foreign-assisted projects pending encoding.]