class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Commission on Higher Education ] .subtitle[ ## A comprehensive look at the budget, 2018-2026 ] .date[ ### August 2026 ] --- class: section-divider center middle # Section 1 of 3: The Scale of the Budget ### A PHP 47-billion budget that is mostly free tuition --- ## Executive summary - **CHED is a large but stagnant budget.** Enacted funding was **PHP 49.4B in 2018 and PHP 47.5B in 2026** -- essentially flat over the period, and *volatile* in between (as low as PHP 31.7B in 2022) -- it has not grown. - **In budget terms, CHED is a free-tuition fund.** A single P/A/P -- **Universal Access to Quality Tertiary Education (UAQTEA)** -- is **79% of the 2026 budget**; the top three subsidy lines are 89%, and the agency is **98% MOOE**. - **Its regulatory mandate is a rounding error.** Quality assurance and regulation -- CHED's core job -- is about **1-2% of the budget**; almost everything is student subsidies and scholarships. - **Congress reshapes CHED violently.** It added **+PHP 37B in 2018** (when free higher education was first funded), **cut PHP 20B in 2022**, and added **+PHP 14B in 2026** -- the widest swings in the series. - **Execution is the weakest in the series.** Cash utilization (disbursements-to-allotment) is often just **40-60%**; large unspent free-tuition balances carry forward year after year. - **No reorganization.** CHED has sat under the Other Executive Offices throughout, with a stable four-program structure. --- ## A few notes on the data - **Period:** FY 2018-2026 for the proposed (NEP) and enacted (GAA) budget; execution data (Allotments, Obligations, Disbursements) covers FY 2011-2025. - **Two bases, not comparable.** NEP/GAA figures are **current-year new appropriations only**. The execution figures are DBM's **published agency aggregates, which lump together all available funds** -- new, automatic, and continuing appropriations. Do not read them one-to-one. - **Continuing appropriations matter here.** CHED's all-funds **allotments often exceed its new appropriations** because large unspent balances are carried forward -- itself a symptom of the chronic under-disbursement shown later. - **No P/A/P-level execution.** Usable FAR No. 1 records were unavailable for CHED, so absorption is shown only at the **agency level**. - **No reorganization.** CHED has remained under the **Other Executive Offices** for the whole period; its four-program structure is stable, so program lines are comparable across all years. - **Expense classes:** PS, MOOE, CO. **Units:** PHP billions unless noted. --- ## What CHED's budget actually funds <img src="data:image/png;base64,#CHED_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/what-slide-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> **CHED is, in budget terms, a student-subsidy fund with a regulator attached** -- a tension worth holding in mind throughout. --- ## Big picture: large, flat, and volatile <img src="data:image/png;base64,#CHED_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/evolution-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Big picture: a few takeaways <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 15px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> PHP B </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2018 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2019 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2022 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2023 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2024 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2025 </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> 2026 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> NEP </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 49.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 39.7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 49.6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 51.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 29.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 29.7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 30.1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 33.1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> GAA </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 49.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 51.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 46.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 50.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 31.7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 30.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 36.7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 33.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 47.5 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> - **No net growth in nine years:** ~PHP 47B in both 2018 and 2026, having peaked around PHP 50B (2018-2021) and bottomed near PHP 32B (2022). - **The enacted budget swings hugely around the proposal** -- from +PHP 37B (2018) to -PHP 20B (2022) -- so CHED's budget is as much a *Congressional* decision as an Executive one. - **The 2018 jump marks the arrival of free higher education:** the NEP predated full UAQTEA funding, which was added at enactment. --- ## Where Congress adjusts the budget <img src="data:image/png;base64,#CHED_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/nep-gaa-gap-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Which P/A/Ps does Congress augment? <img src="data:image/png;base64,#CHED_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/ched-aug-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- class: section-divider center middle # Section 2 of 3: Where the Money Goes ### Programs, subsidies, and expense classes --- ## Composition by program <img src="data:image/png;base64,#CHED_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/composition-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Composition by expense class <img src="data:image/png;base64,#CHED_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/comp-ec-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## The largest P/A/Ps (FY 2026 GAA) <img src="data:image/png;base64,#CHED_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/top-paps-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- class: section-divider center middle # Section 3 of 3: Does CHED Spend What It Receives? ### Budget execution, FY 2011-2025 (agency aggregate, all funds) --- ## Execution over time <img src="data:image/png;base64,#CHED_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/exec-levels-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Absorptive capacity <img src="data:image/png;base64,#CHED_Budget_Analysis_files/figure-html/absorp-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Execution at a glance <table class="table table-condensed table-striped" style="font-size: 14px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Year </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Allotments </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Obligations </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Disbursements </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> O/A </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/O </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> D/A </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2017 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 22.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 20.7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 92.5% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 33.1% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 30.6% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2018 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 50.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 28.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 56.5% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 67.6% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 38.2% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 59.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 33.7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 29.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 56.2% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 86.2% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 48.5% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 72.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 60.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 45.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 82.3% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 76.6% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 63.1% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 62.1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 57.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 38.2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 91.7% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 67.1% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 61.6% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 36.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 29.9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 24.2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 82.4% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 81.1% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 66.8% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 42.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 26.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 23.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 63.7% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 86.1% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 54.8% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2024 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 52.8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 30.4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 23.1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 57.5% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 76.2% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 43.8% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2025 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 53.7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 46.5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 29.6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 86.5% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 63.7% </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 55.1% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> .small[ PHP billions, all-funds basis. **O/A** = obligations to allotment; **D/O** = disbursements to obligations; **D/A** = disbursements to allotment. CHED disburses only about **40-60% of its allotment** in most years; the unspent balance is carried forward, which is why the all-funds allotment often exceeds new appropriations. ] --- ## For discussion - **1. A regulator that mostly disburses subsidies.** ~98% of CHED's budget is student subsidies; quality assurance and regulation -- its core mandate -- is ~1-2%. Is CHED resourced to actually regulate the quality of higher education, or mainly to move tuition money? - **2. Why isn't the money reaching students?** Only ~40-60% of the allotment is disbursed in-year, and unspent free-tuition balances pile up. Where does the pipeline break -- release, SUC billing, beneficiary claims -- and how is it fixed? - **3. Flat funding, rising demand.** The budget has not grown since 2018 while enrolment and costs have risen. Is free higher education adequately and sustainably funded at ~PHP 47B? - **4. Living with volatility.** A +PHP 37B / -PHP 20B swing is hard to plan around for a multi-year entitlement like free tuition. How should such a large, recurring commitment be budgeted more predictably? - **5. Who benefits within UAQTEA?** Free tuition, the Tertiary Education Subsidy and student loans serve different students. Is the mix reaching the neediest, or mainly subsidising those already in SUCs? --- class: center, middle # Thank you ### Commission on Higher Education #### A comprehensive look at the budget, 2018-2026 .footnote[Underlying data: DBM NEP & GAA documents (current-year new appropriations, P/A/P level), FY 2018-2026; DBM-published execution aggregates (all available funds, agency level), FY 2011-2025. No FAR No. 1 (P/A/P-level execution) was available for CHED.] <style type="text/css"> /* Styles are defined here (end of document) so the <style> block does not occupy a content slide; a <style> tag applies to the whole deck regardless of which slide carries it. */ .remark-slide-content, .remark-slide-content h1, .remark-slide-content h2, .remark-slide-content h3, .remark-slide-content h4, .remark-slide-content p, .remark-slide-content li, .remark-slide-content td, .remark-slide-content th, .title-slide h1, .title-slide h2, .title-slide h3 { font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "IBM Plex Sans", sans-serif; } .remark-slide-content { font-size: 22px; } .remark-slide-content h1 { font-size: 32px; font-weight: 600; } .remark-slide-content h2 { font-size: 27px; font-weight: 600; } .remark-slide-content h3 { font-size: 22px; font-weight: 600; } .remark-slide-content table { font-size: 17px; } .remark-slide-content .footnote { position: absolute; bottom: 0.5em; left: 1em; font-size: 13px; color: #6e6e6e; } .small, .small li { font-size: 16px; } .section-divider { background-color: #1B4965; color: #ffffff; } .section-divider h1, .section-divider h2, .section-divider h3 { color: #ffffff; } </style>